Predicting the Winners of the 93rd Academy Awards

Tonight, the 93rd Academy Awards take place on ABC. The Oscars celebrate the best movies of the year. Although, do they really? Because last I checked, Jimmy Fallon’s masterpiece, Fever Pitch, won zero Oscars and didn’t even sniff a nomination despite being the best film of the 21st Century. I don’t see Dom Torreto and the Fast and Furious guys holding trophies either. Ridiculous.

Despite the Oscars only being a night for Hollywood to kiss its own ass and give the most pretentious movies possible awards, I still sit down and watch every single movie nominated, every single year because I’m a sucker for accolades.

Below are my picks and predictions for who should and who will win each of the major awards, including Best Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Director, Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay. I will not pretend to know anything about the difference between sound mixing or sound editing, or costumes, or production design, or makeup, or short subject documentaries, so I will not be predicting any of those. Nor should you. Nor should anybody. Just abolish those.

Best Picture

Nominees

Promising Young Woman

The Trial of the Chicago 7

The Father

Judas and the Black Messiah

Mank

Sound of Metal

Nomadland

Minari

My Pick: Promising Young Woman

This is a slam dunk for me. Promising Young Woman was one of the best movies I have ever seen. It is a great revenge story wrapped up in a weirdly dark dramatic comedic script. The acting, writing and direction were all superb, and no other movie came even close to being as good as this one.

Prediction: Judas and the Black Messiah

The Oscars have a long history of never picking the actual best movie to win Best Picture. Like Dances with Wolves beat Goodfellas, The Shape of Water beat Dunkirk, The Hurt Locker beat Avatar, Shakespeare in Love beat Saving Private Ryan. I could literally go on and on.

Judas and the Black Messiah was fine. It was not nearly as good as Promising Young Woman or Chicago 7, but I think this is the direction Hollywood is going to take it.

I could see them going in a completely different direction towards Nomadland (despite it being the worst movie ever, PERIOD), because Francis McDormand could fart and they’d give her a standing ovation. But I think the Academy will go with Judas and the Black Messiah.

Best Lead Actor

Nominees

Anthony Hopkins - The Father

Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal

Gary Oldman - Mank

Steven Yuen - Minari

My Pick: Anthony Hopkins

One of the greatest to ever do it. He’s got one Oscar already and should be joining the two timers club. He played a man with dementia so well that I literally felt like I also had dementia. There’s one scene where he says to his daughter, “You’re abandoning me?”, and I turned into an actual puddle. It made me want to hug an elderly man I’ve never met. That’s power.

Prediction: Chadwick Boseman

Chadwick was good. The movie as a whole was absolutely abysmal, but he was good. If he wins, it likely has a little to do with the nostalgia aspect, and it definitely has a lot to do with the fact that his competition was horrendous. Riz Ahmed STUNK as a deaf addict.. Steven Yuen (who I had no idea ever acted outside of Walking Dead) was an absolute snooze fest. And Gary Oldman wasn’t acting. Laying in bed while being a little mean to people and drinking? Please, that’s not acting. That’s a Tuesday. Chadwick by default.

Best Lead Actress

Nominees

Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman

Andra Day - The United States vs. Billie Holliday

Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman

Viola Davis - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Frances McDormand - Nomadland

My Pick: Carey Mulligan

I said it earlier. I’ll repeat it. Flawless movie. Carey Mulligan was incredible. She played a great antihero, and I really didn’t feel like I was watching her act as she really blended into the character. Even more impressive is that Carey Mulligan also played Daisy in the Great Gatsby. Credit to me for being able to forget that she was one of the worst literary characters in the history of the world. Give me an Oscar.

Prediction: Andra Day

This is a real toss up. Andra Day was excellent as Billie Holliday. I wouldn’t care if she won over Carey Mulligan. She was very good, very believable and did her own singing. So if Rami Malek, who never sang a note in Bohemian Rhapsody, gets a win, then why not Andra Day?

HOWEVER, I do care that Frances McDormand does not win. This whole evening will be under protest if the Oscar goes to a woman who made me watch a movie about “Van People”... yes I said Van People. People who live in their vans. That’s the whole plot. The entire thing is this woman living in a van. Not even down by the river. Sad.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees

Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah

Lakeith Stanfield - Judas and the Black Messiah

Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago 7

Leslie Odom Jr. - One Night in Miami

Paul Raci - Sound of Metal

My Pick: Daniel Kaluuya

Daniel Kaluuya absolutely killed his portrayal of Fred Hampton. He was intense and believable and really took an otherwise mediocre movie up a level. After being great in Get Out, Black Panther and Queen & Slim, I think this is the year Daniel Kaluuya becomes “Academy Award Winner Daniel Kaluuya.”

Prediction: Daniel Kalyuua

While he was excellent, his competition was just not good. Lakeith Stanfield tremendously overacted. Sasha Baron Cohen is typecast as Borat, so I felt like I was watching Borat on trial in the Chicago 7. Leslie Odom Jr.basically played the character that he did in Hamilton and called himself Sam Cooke. And Paul Raci was so forgettable that I literally had to go back and check that he was even in the movie. Kalyuua for the W.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees

Amanda Seyfried - Mank

Glenn Close - Hillbilly Elegy

Yuh Jung Youn - Minari

Olivia Colman - The Father

Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

My Pick: Amanda Seyfried and Glenn Close

I couldn’t decide. Amanda Seyfried was excellent as a stereotype-defying “dumb blonde” who knows way more than she leads on in Mank. She was stellar. I don’t think she has even a remote chance, but she should.

Glenn Close has been acting for 50 years. She has accumulated 8 Oscar nominations. She’s lost to Cher, Jessica Lange, Linda Hunt, Peggy Ashcroft, Jodie Foster, Olivia Colman and Meryl Streep. Don’t make this woman lose to these nobodies. Give her a god damn trophy. She was good enough. I can’t sit idly by watching this woman put on a fake smile and fake clap for these other women just stealing her thunder year after year.

Prediction: Yuh Jung Youn

Snoooooooooooooooooooooooze. What a boring movie. And I have no recollection of this woman’s performance. It was probably good. People keep saying she’s gonna win. She probably will. Because God hates Glenn Close and likes to watch her suffer.

#JusticeForGlenn

Best Director

Nominees

Emerald Fennell - Promising Young Woman

Chloe Zhao - Nomadland

Thomas Vinterburg - Another Round

David Fincher - Mank

Lee Isaac Chung - Minari

My Pick: Emerald Fennell

Hand up. I have no idea what goes into directing. I had a video camera for about 3 weeks when I was 7 and thought I was Martin Scorsese. So I treat Best Director like the Record of the Year category at the Grammy’s. Whatever person put out the best overall product gets the award.

By default, Promising Young Woman. Promising Young Woman had it all. Good acting, some really cool moments, a good soundtrack and an excellent story. Therefore, I picked Emerald Fennell.

Prediction: Chloe Zhao

While I have no idea what goes into directing, I’ve noticed that big shots of nature seem to have something to do with winning (see: Roma, The Revenant, Gravity and La La Land. They all won. God, these people are so predictable). Nomadland, which was a terrible and horrendous 90 minute tour de force on bad movies, had that in spades. I think I saw more desert than person in this nightmare. Chloe Zhao has won every other award this year so it looks like this one is a slam dunk. Sad!

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Sound of Metal

Minari

Judas and the Black Messiah

Promising Young Woman

Before I say anything, for those who don’t know, the difference between Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay is that an original screenplay is just that, original. It was all completely created from the writer’s brain. Adapted screenplays are created from something else like books, plays, tv shows or other movies. Is one more impressive than the other? Who’s to say? Me. I am to say. Original screenplays are more impressive. Adapted screenplays are like training wheels. Be more creative.

My Pick - Aaron Sorkin - The Trial of the Chicago 7

The Social Network, Moneyball, A Few Good Men, The West Wing, The Newsroom, Steve Jobs. Aaron Sorkin is the greatest writer in the world. There’s literally an entire episode of Entourage about how important he is to Hollywood. He never misses, and he didn’t miss this year. The Trial of the Chicago 7 had an excellent pace, great back and forth banter and an awesome story. To me, this shouldn’t even be a question.

Prediction: Aaron Sorkin - The Trial of the Chicago Seven

I liked the other stories in this category. They were all original and interesting. But the best comparison I make is that Aaron Sorkin is an NFL running back, and these other writers are high school freshmen trying to stop him. It was that much of a disparity.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees

The Father

Nomadland

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

One Night in Miami

The White Tiger

My Pick: One Night in Miami

This is a really cool story and the conversations amongst Muhammad Ali, Malcom X, Sam Cooke and Jim Brown are authentic and passionate. I’m sure it was challenging to capture the personalities of four actual super famous people, but from what I saw, Kemp Powers (hilarious name) did that perfectly.

Prediction - Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm

Hollywood loves a hit piece on things they don’t like. Borat made several jokes at the expense of conservatives, COVID deniers and pro-lifers. The jokes were funny, but a lot like the original Borat, they often went for the low hanging fruit and the lazy path to get to the punchline. I could see Hollywood picking Borat Subsequent Moviefilm because it was, for sure, exactly what they would want to see in a movie (politically speaking).

Also an interesting note is that the last two years saw Jojo Rabbit and BlacKkKlansman win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay. Comedies are finally starting to get recognition after decades of snubs, which is nice. So if we can go ahead and retroactively hand Ted 2 an Oscar for best screenplay, that’d be dope. Thank you.

Some historical things to look out for tonight.

-With a win, Emerald Fennell or Chloe Zhao would become the second woman in history and the first since 2009 to win best director.

-With a win, Frances McDormand would become the 7th person to win 3 Oscars. She won for Fargo and Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri.

-With a win, either Anthony Hopkins or Gary Oldman would win their second Oscar, becoming the 23rd actor to do so.

-With a win, either Viola Davis or Olivia Colman would win their second Oscar, becoming the 22nd actress to do so.

-With a win, Aaron Sorkin would become the 4th person to win two Oscars for best screenplay. (The others being Woody Allen, Quentin Tarantino and the Coen Brothers)

-Chadwick Boseman would be the first actor since Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight) to win an Oscar after his death.

-12 out of 20 nominated actors have never even been nominated prior to this year. And 15 out of 20 have never won.

-Glenn Close has had EIGHT nominations and never won. SAD!

Can we figure something out here? A participation Oscar? Anything?

-Frances McDormand, Sacha Baron Cohen and Leslie Odom Jr. have a chance to win two Oscars in one night. Only Laurence Olivier has won an Oscar for acting and won a second Oscar in the same night. And that happened in 1948. I didn’t even know they had movies in 1948.

A few years ago, Lady Gaga won for best song and was nominated for Best Actress later on in the night, and she didn’t clap for the winner because she thought she was gonna win. Special moment. What a LOSER!

So that’s that. The eight major categories and some history to look out for. I enjoy the Oscars every year because I like sitting in my living room and getting worked up over an actor that I like not being handed a meaningless golden statue before they head home to their trillion dollar mansions. Truly a magical time of year.

Please just give Glenn Close a trophy. She looks so sad every year. Look at her face last time she lost…

…you want this woman’s sadness on your conscience? Look at the sadness behind those eyes. The pain. That's 50 years of being told you're not good enough. Poor Glenn Close.

Written by Tom Fitzgerald

Edited by Kayla Jimenez